What have we learned about the macroeconomic effect of forward guidance?

Programme

Tuesday, 9 November 2021

10:50 – 11:00        Opening and welcome
Viktor Marinkov (University of Oxford)

11:00 – 11:45        TBA
presenter: Tai Nakata (University of Tokyo)

11:45 - 12:30        The Stabilizing Effects of Publishing Strategic Central Bank Projections
presenter: Joep Lustenhouwer (Heidelberg University)
co-authors: Steffen Ahrens, Michele Tettamanzi

12:30 – 13:45        Lunch Break

13:45 – 14:30        Does real-time macroeconomic information help to predict interest rates?
presenter: Laura Coroneo (University of York)
co-author: Alberto Caruso

14:30 - 15:15        Communication at the Zero Lower Bound: The Case for Forward Guidance
presenter: Viktor Marinkov (University of Oxford)

15:15 – 15:30       Break

15:30 – 16:15       The origins of monetary policy disagreement: the role of supply and demand shocks
presenter: Carlos Madeira (Central Bank of Chile)
co-authors: Joao Madeira, Paulo Monteiro

16:15 – 17:00      Household Debt and the Heterogeneous Effects of Forward Guidance
presenter: Francesco Ferrante (FED Board)
co-author: Matthias Paustian

17:00 – 17:15      Break

17:15 – 18:00      TBA
presenter: Ed Herbst (FED Board)

Wednesday, 10 November 2021 

11:00 - 11:45         The macroeconomic effects of forward communication
                              presenter: Saskia Ter Ellen (Norges Bank)
co-authors: Leif Brubakk, Ørjan Robstad, Hong Xu

11:45 - 12:30       US Monetary Policy at the Height of the Financial Crisis: A
                             Constrained Optimal Policy Projections Perspective
presenter: Oliver de Groot (University of Liverpool & CEPR)
co-authors: Falk Mazelis, Roberto Motto, Annukka Ristiniemi

12:30 – 13:45      Lunch Break

13:45 – 14:30      Estimating the Fed’s Unconventional Policy Shocks
presenter: Marek Jarociński (ECB)

14:30 - 15:15        TBA
presenter: Martin Seneca (Bank of England)

15:15 – 15:30        Break

15:30 – 16:15        What are the Macroeconomic Effects of State-Dependent Forward Guidance (SDFG)?
presenter: Tomasz Wieladek (King’s College London & CEPR)
co-author: Martin Weale

16:15 – 17:00       Learning and Misperception of Makeup Strategies
presenter: Fabian Winkler (FED Board)
co-authors: Martin Bodenstein, James Hebden

17:00 – 17:15       Break

17:15 – 18:00       Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks
                               and their Macroeconomic Effects
presenter: Daniel Lewis (New York FED)

 

Further details:
• All times are in UK (UTC +0, GMT) time zone.
• Presentations are set to 30-35 minutes, followed by a 10-15 minutes Q&A.
• The workshop will be held on Zoom. A link to the session will be sent to the registered participants in advance of the workshop.

Registration:
Registration is open. If you would like to attend the workshop, please sign up on the
website. The deadline for registration is 4pm on 8 November 2021